Ecologists
at the University of Georgia recently published a study
in Theoretical Ecology that
identifies a potential new tool to fight against infectious diseases.
According
to the study, “[s]ustaining momentum near the end of [malaria] elimination
programs is often difficult to achieve” and tools that help to monitor the
effectiveness of these programs after the initial case reductions are needed.
In response to this need, researchers developed a model that used public health
surveillance data for malaria to signal when the disease is approaching
eradication. The model is based on the theory of “critical slowing down,” which
describes statistical patterns that “appear when a system under stress is
nearing a tipping point—the point after which it is doomed to eventual
extinction.”
Specifically,
the researchers looked for evidence of “critical slowing down” with four
prevention and control methods: (1) using bed nets, (2) spraying indoor
insecticides, (3) administering drug treatments to shorten a malaria patient’s
infectious period, and (4) eliminating mosquito habitats. The researchers found
that their model revealed patterns indicating impending tipping points,
although the strength of the signal depended on the control and statistical
methods used to analyze the data.
Click here
to read the full study.
