The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecasts that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1st, will be near-normal. The center predicts that there is a 70% chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top wind speeds of at least 39 mph), of which between four and eight will become hurricanes (with top wind speeds of at least 74 mph). Only one to three hurricanes are predicted to become major hurricanes (i.e., category 3, 4, or 5 with top wind speeds of at least 111 mph).
This projection is based on atmospheric and oceanic conditions. According to NOAA, factors that could limit storm development include strong wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean , and El Niño.
But NOAA’s seasonal prediction does not predict how many storms will come ashore. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts individual storms and their paths. It uses tools such as satellites, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, radar, and buoys to monitor and track storm development.
