Complex Link Between Rising Imprisonment and Decrease in Crime Rate

According to the Pew Charitable Trusts, the crime rate nationwide dropped by 40% from 1994 to 2012, while the imprisonment rate increased by 24% during that same period. Connecticut’s crime rate decreased by 47%, while its imprisonment rate increased by 5%.

The two states with the largest reductions in crime rate (54%) were New York and Florida. New York’s imprisonment rate declined by 24%, while Florida’s increased by 31%. 

Another Pew document summarizes several factors that experts see as contributing to the nation’s decreasing crime rate. Increased incarceration is one factor.  Some others include:

• better policing (including improvements in law enforcement strategies and improved access to data);
• decreasing demand for crack cocaine; and
• the aging of the population (seniors commit fewer crimes than younger people).

Pew’s website also has the transcript of an interview with nine scholars discussing the link between imprisonment and crime, as well as various other factors that may contribute to declining crime rates.