OLR Report 2013-R-0146 examines whether Florida's “10-20-Life” law caused a decrease in the state's violent crime rates.
Florida's 10-20-Life law imposes mandatory minimum sentences for certain felony convictions involving the use or attempted use of a firearm (Fla. Stat. § 775.087). Since 1999, when the law took effect, the state's violent crime rates have generally decreased. According to FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) statistics, the violent crime rate the year the law became effective was 854 (per 100,000 population), compared with 812 (per 100,000 population) one year later. Five years later in 2004, it was 711.8 (per 100,000 population). In 2010, the last year for which FBI UCR data is available, the rate was 542.4 (per 100,000 population).
But it is difficult to determine whether the drop is attributable to the law. We spoke with various public officials in Florida who indicated that other variables may have contributed, directly or indirectly, to the drop including an increase in the number of law enforcement officers, other anticrime strategies, and the governor's warning of the severe penalties for gun crimes. Further, violent crime rates in Florida were trending downward prior to the law's effective date.
Little independent research exists on whether there is a causal relationship between the law and decreasing violent crime rates. However, we found one journal article, written by a criminologist and former University of Florida professor, that attempts to isolate the law's effect through statistical intervention analysis. Dr. Alex Piquero concludes that while it is difficult to determine causality, there is likely not a statistically significant relationship between the intervention (the law) and any decrease in violent crime, including firearms homicides.
For more information, read the full report. For more information on the law's provisions, see OLR Report 2013-R-0067.
