Yes, according to University of Utah city and regional planning professor Arthur C. Nelson, and he backs up his claim by pointing to “demographic and economic forces that will apply unrelenting downward pressure on the [housing] market for the next decade.”
Why? What happened? Before the market crashed, we overbuilt big single-family homes on big lots and under built apartments and attached homes, Nelson stated. Now, most of the demand for new housing will come from seniors and households without kids, from people who prefer to live in multifamily units near stores, doctors’ offices, bus and train lines, and other amenities. But there’s more: “When those 65 and older move, 80% vacate single-family houses, but 41% move into single-family units.”
Household size is another force depressing the housing market, and no one expected it to increase. In fact, demographers predicted it would drop 2.59 people per household to 2.52 per household. Instead, the national average jumped to 2.63 people per household. And these households are multigenerational—they include kids moving back with their parents and their elderly moving in for care.
And, what’s going to happen to McMansions—one of the icons of the 1990s? Well don’t be surprised if people start dividing them into separate apartments, much to the chagrin of zoning enforcement officers and homeowners associations.
